Correlation and causality

I didn't realise it from the beginning. I am almost certain that I only became aware of this since last year. But since then, I feel that my thought-process has become much sharper.
What am I talking about?
I'm talking about the fact that the causality and correlation are totally different.
It is one thing to say that A is somehow related to B, and completely another to say that A is the cause of B.

Let's think of an example. Meet Lucy.
Lucy is 6 year old girl, who was the flower girl at her aunty, Julie's wedding, just about a year ago. Since then, Lucy saw Julie only a few times, but each time, Julie's belly was getting bigger and bigger, until just yesterday, when Lucy visited Julie with mum. Lucy was told that Julie gave a birth to a baby boy. Lucy wasn't sure what was happening, but when she saw the little red baby sleeping in the cot, Lucy somehow knew what her mum said about "giving birth".
Having seen a peaceful and cuddly looking baby cousin for the first time in her life, Lucy wished that she would have her own baby one day. And seeing that it all started with Julie getting married about a year ago, Lucy wished that one day she'll get married so she will have a baby, just like this little baby cousin.

Now, pause and think about that last sentence.

What is happening in Lucy's mind here?
Lucy have seen the correlation between Julie's marriage and the baby cousin. There is no doubt about that, and there is no mistake in that.
But Lucy went further and concluded that "getting married" is the cause of "having a baby".
We "grown-ups" know that this conclusion is a mistake. While there is no need to deny the correlation between the marriage and having a baby, it is obvious to us that the marriage does not necessarily result in having a baby. Also, we see many people having a baby without getting married. (Please reserve your moral, ethical, and religious position induced comments here. I'm merely pointing out what I, nay, we all observe today.) So, making a connection, (ie. correlation) between marriage and giving a birth is fine, but to conclude that marriage makes (ie. causality) one to give birth is wrong.

Unfortunately, I see this kind of foggy thinking way too prevalent.
People get confused about correlation and causality all the time, making incorrect judgement of situation and comments. Media people, whom I expect (or, after seeing so much junk, should I say that I just hope? wish?) to have a clear(er) view on this thing don't fare better at all.
Here's just one example of that in the SMH: Dump the toy boy for a lasting union. (Ok, I admit, it's in the Life & Style section, not a fair place for the SMH some may say.)
It tries to convince the reader that their advice is reliable by saying, "The advice comes not from an agony aunt in a women's magazine but from some of the country's top demographers." But all the conclusion they seem to make is purely from statistical data, and statistical data alone, not logical thinking on top of the statistical data. You saw that there was a correlation between a demographical condition to a lasting marriage, but you cannot simply say that you've got to keep that that condition in order to have a lasting marriage. You must first prove that the condition is the cause of the lasting marriage before you can give such advice. And I hope that the readers will look for the logical proof before trusting their advice.

Anyway, I don't know why I wrote this much about that silly "tabloid-like" article. Maybe it was my passion for this understanding about marriage that did it. Or was it my passion for understanding the difference between the correlation and causality? See, figuring out the cause is quite difficult.

Resolutions of Jonathan Edwards: #27, #28

27. Resolved, never willfully to omit anything, except the omission be for the glory of God; and frequently to examine my omissions.

This reminds me that not doing the right thing is pretty much the same as doing a wrong thing. The only difference is whether you did the wrong thing actively, or passively. They both are evil.

28. Resolved, to study the Scriptures so steadily, constantly and frequently, as that I may find, and plainly perceive myself to grow in the knowledge of the same.

Steadily, constantly, and frequently. Ok. Simple. Gotta do this. Do I want to do this? If I have seen and tasted that the Lord is good, why don't I desire to know Him more and more through His Word?

(Source: A Puritan's Mind)

Are you a patriot?

Can a Christian be patriotic? I think so. But how much can a Christian love his earthly country, when he ultimately belongs to the Kingdom of Heaven? And in what way should a Christian love his earthly country?

Ray Ortlund gives a good example, as an American Christian.

Resolutions of Jonathan Edwards: #26

26. Resolved, to cast away such things, as I find do abate my assurance.

If you think about it, why would you do anything to make yourself feel miserable by shaking your assurance?
Be careful here though, that I do not think Edwards is talking about your feeling of assurance only, as if he would avoid thinking about whether he was saved or not in case he would feel nervous about his salvation. That is not what Edwards would say or do. If in doubt, read the Religious Affections. He would think hard about whether he was saved or not quite a lot even knowing that he might feel nervous about his salvation and abate his assurance. But that's the point. He will figure out what is making him feel nervous about his salvation, usually some kind of repeating sins I bet, and he will do his utmost to get rid of those sins. See, it's about feelings, but not just feelings, it's a logical self assessment that he is trying to do, so that he can be more assured of God's salvation, not only in his feelings, but more importantly to be sure of with his mind, that he is standing on the solid Rock, whether he feels it or not right at that moment.

(Source: A Puritan's Mind)

[Note: blogspot's scheduled posting doesn't seem to be working properly. I planned to post this up last week, but didn't get posted automatically, so I'm doing it now.]

[Edit: added the source.]

Resolutions of Jonathan Edwards: #24, #25

24. Resolved, whenever I do any conspicuously evil action, to trace it back, till I come to the original cause; and then both carefully endeavor to do so no more, and to fight and pray with all my might against the original of it.

25. Resolved, to examine carefully, and constantly, what that one thing in me is, which causes me in the least to doubt of the love of God; and to direct all my forces against it.

It would be profitable for us to fight our sins. But fighting them at a wrong level will get us nowhere. Worse still, it can even deceive us to build up our pride while outwardly actions can be morally acceptable in everyone's view.

(Source: A Puritan's Mind)

Resolutions of Jonathan Edwards: #23

23. Resolved, frequently to take some deliberate action, which seems most unlikely to be done, for the glory of God, and trace it back to the original intention, designs and ends of it; and if I find it not to be for God's glory, to repute it as a breach of the 4th Resolution.

I'm feeling light-hearted today, and so, this resolution seems a bit too fierce for me. But then, maybe there's something I need to learn from it precisely because it's so fierce. Why would I not give my whole even when I feel less inclined to, if my Lord is indeed worthy of my all, everything?

For resolution #4, see it here.

(Source: A Puritan's Mind)

Book Review: Unpacking Forgiveness

Finished reading "Unpacking Forgiveness" by Chris Brauns. I'm not going to write a book review on this even though my title says Book Review. I cannot simply "review" this book for I am too deeply affected by it. As I read through the book, there were moments where my heart cried out to God for justice. No, more like vengeance. I argued with Him that it was too much not to seek revenge on at least some of the offences committed in this world. I argued that the only thing evil needs to thrive is the idleness and silence of the good. But deep down, I had to agree with what the author was saying, for he was merely reflecting what God had said in His word. (And by the way, the author was not saying that we should let the evil have its way, nor does the bible says so. But that's another blog post for another time.)

Eventually I realised how unforgiving I was, how much I was brooding inside with vengeance, and I still am. So I realised how much more I needed God's forgiveness and reforming of my mind and heart. And as I lift my eyes off my sinful self to the holy and righteous God, I am comforted and strengthened. I can hope in God whose words are sure and whose works are perfect. My cry for justice is silenced by the hope I have in God's vengeance. My petition for mercy, forgiveness, and reconciliation is overwhelmed by the hope I have in God's sovereign grace. God is sufficient.


I am searching for a better phrase, but I can't, so I'm just going to use the cliché. This book is a must read.

You can get this book from Amazon, or Koorong.

Don't you see...

Don't you see that life is so full of beauty and nauseating brokenness that there's got to be a God?

Don't you realise that the world is such a wonderful place and at the same time, so full of sickening terror that there must be a God?

Do you realise that there must be a God who created all?
Do you see that we all need God who redeems?


Choose now, Two ways to live

Whatever God laid out for our lives

"Whatever God laid out for our lives, we were taking it," she told the Sunday Express newspaper.
- "Sextuplets 'are a gift from God'" from BBC news

I don't know if she's a Christian, but I sure do want that line to be my confession too.

Resolutions of Jonathan Edwards: #22

22. Resolved, to endeavor to obtain for myself as much happiness, in the other world, as I possibly can, with all the power; might, vigor, and vehemence, yea violence, I am capable of, or can bring myself to exert, in any way that can be thought of.

Comment #1: Okay, I'm returning to reading through the resolutions of Jonathan Edwards.

Comment #2: I want to be like Edwards. Giving everything, fighting violently and fiercely, because of the eternity in view.

(Source: A Puritan's Mind)